It has been a long time coming, but the construction recovery seems to be almost here. The housing market has been keeping up construction growth, which is rebounding from record lows, but now many of the non-residential building markets are starting to turn the corner, making for many optimistic forecasts for 2014. The remaining drag on construction growth for next year is the public sector, which continues to be squeezed by the battle over the federal deficit.

但是，一些经济学家甚至在那里看到一线希望。“经济衰退将数百万工人赶出了行业，这并不容易让他们回来，因此缓慢而稳定的康复可能是帮助控制通货膨胀的最好的事情，”首席经济学家兰迪·吉加德（Randy Giggard）说。FMI，北卡罗来纳州罗利市。“您可以为某些材料市场提出类似的论点。”

Construction market fundamentals are there for even stronger growth, but markets are hobbled by political uncertainty generated by chronic budget battles between Democrats and Republicans. All the forecasts collected by ENR take into consideration this political uncertainty, but if politics spins out of control again, the rather optimistic consensus among economists for 2014 could suddenly turn less sunny. For now, all the forecasts suggest the industry can look, as the Monty Python song says, "on the bright side of life."

麦格劳山（McGraw Hill）2014年的建设预测肯定是明亮的一面，要求明年的建设开始增长9％。它还预测，单户住房，多户住房和商业建筑的美元价值的强劲增长。MHC还预测，2014年将检查机构建筑物的三年下降，明年增长2％。在今年增长6％之后，明年的制造业工作将增长8％。MHC预计公共工程明年将再下跌5％，而电力市场下降了33％。

"Our outlook is positive, with a few caveats," says Robert Murray, MHC chief economist. "This is another step on the way to a more full-fledged expansion," he adds. "Because this is a measured expansion, there is a very good chance this forecast will play out."

默里（Murray）警告该行业不要对百分比变化感到兴奋。穆雷说，尽管MHC在住宅和商业市场中看到了良好的增长，而许多非住宅建筑市场开始转弯，但大多数仍低于峰值水平。

默里将自己置于“缓慢稳定不是一件坏事”的训练营中。他说：“恢复的发展方式是有益的，原因有两个：它减少了另一个繁荣时期的机会 - 然后是爆发周期，并且使劳动限制并不那么严重。”

华盛顿特区全国房屋建筑商协会的罗伯特·丹克（Robert Denk）同意，较慢越好，并且对变化百分比的变化也不会太兴奋。他说：“我们看到有很多百分比的增长，但我们仍然没有想要的地方。”对于Denk而言，“正常”市场将每年开始开发130万个住房。NAHB估计，今年的住房总开业将增加18％，达到924,000。NAHB预测，明年市场将接近“正常”，开发115万。

而drivin住房呈两位数增长g overall construction growth, economists are just as excited about some broad swings in the non-residential markets that they see coming next year. Murray predicts that Dodge starts for educational buildings will swing from a negative 3.4% this year to a positive 3.0% in 2014. He also sees health care going from a minus 2.8% this year to a plus 2.0% next year. "The key for 2014 is institutional buildings. Can [that market]stabilize, or is there room for further declines?" he asks. Murray's forecast calls for the institutional building market to bounce back 2% next year, after falling 4.4% in 2013.

Similar Swings

FMI's Randy Giggard predicts similar swings. FMI's forecast calls for the office market to go from a minus 2% to a plus 4%, for school building to go from a 4% decline to a 4% increase, and health-care work from down 1% to up 6%. "Health care follows a natural cycle, and it is just time to start building more hospitals," Giggard says. "And people keep voting for school building bonds, so that market is looking good, too," he adds.

The Portland Cement Association, Skokie, Ill., is predicting an 8% increase in construction put-in-place next year, compared to an estimated increase of just 1.3% this year. The PCA forecast is a little more bullish on public construction than other forecasts. PCA predicts growth in the overall public market will swing from a negative 5.2% this year to a positive 3.4% in 2014.

The Associated Builders and Contractors, Washington, D.C., is forecasting a 6% increase in construction next year. "Our model shows next year's growth of 5% for commercial construction, 7% for health care, 8% for lodging and 6% for communications," says Anirban Basu, ABC's chief economist.

华盛顿特区美国道路与运输建筑商协会对高速公路铺路和桥梁工作的预测，铺路工作的增长不断，但桥梁建设的增长相对较强。Artba的首席经济学家Alison Black说：“我们预计明年的铺路工作增长了1.9％，甚至几乎没有资格成为反弹。”她估计，在2012年下降了3.3％之后，今年铺路市场下跌了11.4％。“路面市场在未来几年中看起来还很糟糕，”她补充说。

另一方面，桥梁的工作正在以稳定的速度增长。Artba预测，2014年的桥梁工作的美元价值将增加5.6％，此后，今年增长了7.1％，2012年增长了5.1％。

"We have seen a big divergence between the highway and bridge markets," says Black. "On the pavement side, we have seen a significant pullback in state and local spending. But what is really holding down our forecast is the questions over the Highway Trust Fund," she adds. "There is very little money going into new construction."

确实，由于其不确定性，联邦政府的资金是明年许多建筑市场的关键问题。国会预算的不规则导致了10月的大部分联邦政府的16天关闭，这进一步使追求联邦建筑项目的公司感到不安。新利18备用网址

During the shutdown, many agencies did not award new contracts, and there also was a temporary halt in the Corps of Engineers' processing of permits to build in and around wetlands.

Finally, on Oct. 16, congressional leaders reached an agreement to extend funding through Jan. 15 and brought federal workers back on the job. The measure also averted a government default by raising the debt ceiling through Feb. 7.

In addition, the deal called for members of the House and Senate budget committees to begin negotiations toward a budget blueprint for fiscal year 2014. If enacted, it would be the first budget resolution to become law since 2009. The joint House-Senate budget conference committee held its first meeting on Oct. 30 and met again on Nov. 13 but did not reach an agreement.

The conferees, led by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Senate budget panel Chairman Patty Murray (D-Wash.), face a Dec. 13 deadline to produce a deal.

Murray said the minimum goal would be to set an overall discretionary-spending cap for 2014. While the House approved a $966-billion limit, and the Senate passed a $1.058-trillion cap.

如果预算联合国可以就折衷的“顶级”支出数字达成共识，则众议院和参议院拨款委员会将致力于确定每个线条项目（包括建筑计划）的2014年筹资水平。另一个开放的问题是，预算伙伴是否会用一些替代公式来替代强制性预算的广泛支出减少。根据Enr的估计，2013年隔离式造成的建筑支出减少了40亿美元。新利18备用

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