The construction industry has been expecting a turnaround in the market for the past three years, but just when sentiment starts to improve, fate steps in to thwart an upswing. Most recently, industry executives said that, once the national elections were decided in November, there would be more clarity on the direction of the market. With the results behind us, industry still is waiting for a sign that a market uptick is near.

The most recent ENR Construction Industry Confidence Index survey reflects this continuing uncertainty. The fourth-quarter 2012 CICI remained unchanged at 50 points on a scale of 100, which represents a flat market. The 378 executives of large construction and design firms responding to the survey believe the market will not begin to show signs of growth until the end of 2013 or beginning of 2014, if then.

CICI措施执行关于铜的情绪rrent market and reflects their views on where it will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. The index is based on responses to surveys sent out to more than 3,000 U.S. firms on ENR's lists of the leading contractors, subcontractors and design firms. The latest results are based on a survey conducted from Nov. 19 to Dec. 10.

One of the major concerns about the future construction market arises from the current uncertainty about the U.S. economy. The CICI also measures sentiment about the U.S. economy, a leading indicator of future construction trends. In the fourth quarter, confidence in the U.S. economy fell to a CICI rating of 47, from 51 in the third quarter and 55 in the second quarter. In the first quarter of 2012, it stood at 64, which hinted at a significant recovery that never came.

至于目前的市场，有30％的行业高管认为它仍在下降，而只有18％的人认为它正在增长。只有26％的人认为市场将在未来六个月内增长，而同等数量的市场认为，市场仍将下降。但是，有44％的人认为，到2013年底，市场将在上升，而只有15％的受访者认为该市场将在12到18个月内继续下降。

CFMA Members Are Worried

CICI的发现与建筑金融管理协会，新泽西州普林斯顿州普林斯顿州CFMA民意调查的最新Consindex调查结果相似。虽然Condindex评级为100，这表明市场稳定，但预计将显示出较高的评级。

"Our Confindex fell from 117 to 114 [on a scale of 200] for the fourth quarter," says Stuart Binstock, CEO of CFMA. In the first quarter of 2012, the Confindex hit 131. He notes that two of the four components making up the Confindex declined sharply in the fourth quarter. The business conditions component of the Confindex fell to 123 from 130, while the outlook for the year ahead component fell to 118 from 127, Binstock notes.

这是从前季度的转变，CFMA的调查显示承包商首席财务官的乐观情绪增加。“在过去的几个月中，[CFMA]成员已经看到了市场摊位的前进动力，”经济顾问Sage Policy Group Inc.，巴尔的摩和CFMA经济顾问的首席执行官Anirban Basu说。他说：“他们不希望市场能摆脱悬崖，但他们一直在看到业主越来越不愿意继续进行项目，尤其是更大，更风险的项目。”新利18备用网址

Basu says this uncertainty is not tied to project financing. He notes that the Confindex component relating to business financing remained unchanged from the last quarter. This parallels ENR's CICI findings where 64% of survey respondents said that project financing has been unchanged from six months ago, while 19.9% said that project financing has actually eased in the past six months.