While commodity prices have begun to stabilize following the extreme volatility of the past several years, recession fears continue to mount. Inflation and labor shortages remain ongoing issues within the construction industry as well as the broader U.S. economy.

ConstructConnect首席经济学家Alex Carrick说：“同比价格上涨最终却赶上了材料成本的提高，这将使许多承包商的微笑。”“此外，在很大程度上，由于攀登利率的期望，人们对某些关键商品价格的回报造成了回调。这在进入新房屋的林业产品中尤其明显。但是在其他一些原材料（例如铜）中也可以看到它。”

随着材料价格下跌，卡里克预计其他领域的成本可能会上升。新利18备用官网登录“也许更大的担忧将很快转移到薪酬和工作场所问题上，因为熟练工人的短缺正在恢复更多的劳动力。新合同谈判的紧张局势几乎肯定会变得更加明显。”

Richard Branch, chief economist of the Dodge Construction Network, says “as 2022 has moved passed the mid-point of the year, the construction sector is at a crossroads. The Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator of nonresidential building construction activity, is at a 14-year high as developers and owners start the planning process for hotels, offices, schools and hospitals. This suggests that the nascent recovery in construction starts from the pandemic will continue unabated despite rising costs and labor shortages.”

他说，这种热情将“通过迅速上升的利率提高，并担心经济衰退会在计划周期中停止项目。”新利18备用网址道奇的预测预测，尽管将在2023年避免衰退，但住宅和商业市场的建设开始将大大放缓。道奇预计，学校，医院，制造业和基础设施的市场应该保持稳定。

Overall, the dollar value of construction starts is up 6% over the first half of 2021. Single family starts fell 3% as “a noticeable chill has come over the single family market as higher mortgage rates and rising prices have further eroded affordability,” says Branch. Multi-family housing, however, “has flourished,” up 23% over the first six months of last year. Among the largest multi-family projects to begin work in the second quarter of this year were the $800-million Two Bridges building in New York and the $329-million Reston Next, a mixed-use building in Reston, Va.

制造开始射击

随着办公室和酒店建设的增长，非住宅的开始年份增长了13％。教育和医疗保健等机构工作主要是平坦的。Branch说：“尽管增强的重新设备将建筑活动推向了新的高度，但制造业开始一直是非住宅部门的真正明星。”在亚利桑那州钱德勒（Chandler）的100亿美元英特尔制造计划以及威斯康星州芬尼尔（Fontenelle）的耗资4亿埃克萨斯州埃克森·拉巴尔（Exxon Labarge）碳捕获工厂开始于上个季度建设。

On the non-building side, construction starts are down 2% compared to the first half of last year. “Highway and bridge starts are bucking that trend, while electric power, sewer and water starts are all lower,” Branch adds. The $1.7-billion Samson Solar project and the $523-million Danish Fields solar farm, both in Texas, were the largest non-building projects to break ground in the second quarter.

木材价格下跌

在过去几年中飞涨后，木材价格终于下降了。标准普尔全球市场情报副总监Deni Koenhemsi说：“（软木木材）的价格在6月的需求放缓，而买家等待更好的价格。”“随着人们重新存储库存，预计将在整个夏季的剩余时间里波动。尽管如此，我们不希望定价能够始终如一地提高。”

标准普尔全球市场智能预测预测，软木木材在2022年下降了4％，随后2023年下降了27.2％。预计胶合板将上升1.8％，2023年下降了23.7％。

价格也在下降。标准普尔全球市场情报高级经济学家Christos Rigoutsos说：“由于原材料价格较低，美国酒吧和Rod的价格在第二季度下跌，但供应链瓶颈仍然存在。”“在夏季初，更高数量的进口产品和高容量利用率正在推动价格下降。”

Reinforcing bar prices are still expected to rise overall in 2022, at a rate of 20%, according to the S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast, before falling 8.8% in 2023. The forecast for structural shapes follows a similar trajectory, rising 23.1% this year with a 14% drop expected next year.