W匹兹堡地区开发商Hen Elmhurst Group于去年11月开始为一座新型综合用途建筑收集出价,钢制框架,屋顶和覆层面板的价格为1400万美元的项目的价格超过了预期的382,000美元失望让Elmhurst停顿。该项目的总体材料成本超过65万美元新利18备用官网登录以上的价格高于最初计算的。

Elmhurst开发总监Brian Miller说,该公司决定在几个月后重新考虑钢铁部分,以获取较低的价格。虽然“不适合供应商关系的理想”,但由于整体材料成本增加了,因此需要钢板重构。

米勒说:“这根本从来都不是这样。最初的成本增加是在木材中,但后来又迁移到了几乎所有的东西。”

在某些材料价格和相关短缺方面的飙升已经将新的紧张局势注入了供应链业务关系中。尽管公司表示他们正在通过更具创造力的采购方法管理危机,但他们很少谈论更具争议的活动层。它包括削减购买合同并要求更高价格的供应商,所有者和承包商重新竞标已经出价的合同以获取较低的价格(在阳光明媚的时代,这一过程降低了成本,但会损害投标人的价格和价格欺骗。新利18备用官网登录

The inflationary tide that is well-known in steel and lumber has also swept up other product classes, such as insulation and solar panels. The effect sometimes is project paralysis and deferred decisions to build.

Right now, owners and contractors can’t decide whether to wait for prices of some materials to fall, or to proceed with projects to avoid more delays—for some, a bigger issue than price.

“我们有一些承包商说,他们将尝试等待大约12个月左右,但仍然不能保证价格或供应链问题将在12个月内解决。”
—Chris Smith, AGC of California

“我们有一些承包商说,他们将尝试等待大约12个月左右,但仍然不能保证价格或供应链问题将在12个月内解决。”和中央州政府事务经理Associated General Contractors of California。“过去,我们已经看到持续了两年的物质成本上涨,但目前的主要问题是供应链方面”和延误。

历史通货膨胀率

通货膨胀的来源包括支持的运输港口,不利天气,关税,大流行开始时的削减以及刺激对小时工人的影响。

尽管随着流行病的能力返回,一些分析师预计钢铁价格撤退,但根据IHS Markit的第三季度预测,结构金属价格预计在2021年总体上涨了22.8%,而制造的结构表将上涨23.8%。这些数字可能是当年的峰值,代表了第二季度报告的急剧增加,该报告分别预测两种材料分别为9.4%和6.8%。

To be sure, the doubling of some steel prices since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 has not wrecked steel construction, which has experienced its most dramatic price leaps since 2004-2008, when price spikes of 50% were seen and the美国钢铁学院first promulgated language for price escalation clauses in contracts.

Depending on the project type, steel materials represent a limited part of the overall cost of a steel-framed building—about 10%, depending on the structure.

重构成成本策略

But for Elmhurst Group, the Pittsburgh-area developer, cost-control is vital. Its new“创新中心,”a combination of office and warehouse space suited for research and development, will eventually consist of three-story structures. It is being built in two 85,000-sq-ft phases.

When the steel bids came in high, Miller says, “we had to go back and bring in new bidders to see if we could get the price down.” A new bid pared $222,000 off from the $382,000 steel cost increase, with Miller glad he was able to lock in the lower price.

“I was told that in two or three months, the steel costs would have been a $500,000 increase,” he said.

Inflation has stalled or cast uncertainty on transportation projects, too.

George C. Delano, Granite Construction California Valley region project executive, says original estimates for Caltrans' planned redecking and rehabilitation of the American River Bridge in Sacramento are now out of date. It has pipe piles and sheet piles in its substructure and steel girders in the superstructure. The big question is whether to delay work in hopes that prices will tumble.

American River Bridge

Rehab and re-decking of the American River Bridge in Sacramento could be delayed over steel prices. Photo: Courtesy of Caltrans

Some analysts foresee such a decline, noting that global production actually exceeds pre-COVID-19 output and the U.S. is back to 2019 levels after months of underproduction.

德拉诺在电子邮件中写道,该决定“是一个困难的电话”,因为价格可能保持不变,甚至更高。

Inflation has cornered other project developers into making tradeoffs between cost and schedule.

K. Cyrus Sanandaji, managing director of San Francisco-based developer Presidio Bay Ventures, says one of his company’s general contractors had a project designed with pan decking and metal trusses, where the normal six-month delivery lead time now is one year and threatens to delay the project.

通过重新设计到I梁和从多家制造商那里购买平底锅,该项目已按计划进行。

Under the new scheme, steel costs climbed 10%—an acceptable amount with the schedule now under control. If the project had been rebid, says Sanandaji, the costs would have increased by more than 15%.

绝缘短缺

其他产品类型稀缺和威胁德尔ay projects, too, including polyiso sloped roofing insulation for commercial projects. It now has a current lead time of more than 20 months, Sanandaji says, and “we may need these products in less than half this time” from when it is ordered.

So that means looking to other materials that may be equivalent, such as cellcrete or expanded polystyrene, which may have “faster lead times with costs that are cost neutral or minimally more.”

埃尔姆赫斯特(Elmhurst)的米勒(Miller)表示,他的公司最近从其总承包商之一中学到了另一种涉及墙壁和屋顶绝缘的问题 - 价格欺诈。

制造商对分包商的“突然请求”形式,包括不发货的威胁,如果不同意增加105,000美元的增加,则取消了订单。引起了怀疑。

米勒说,他和他的员工进行了调查,发现一切都符合总承包商的命令,这使得允许12个以上的数周实际提供材料。但是,一旦Elmhurst这样做,绝缘供应商/供应商声称“不可抗力”,指出其制造商 - 供应商的价格超出了其控制。

绝缘

与该纽约州工业建筑项目中使用的绝缘材料相似,已经延迟和可能的价格进行欺诈。照片:理查德·科尔曼(Richard Korman)新利18备用

Elmhurst拒绝被动地接受不可抗力的主张,但可能几乎没有选择。为了保护可能会突然价格上涨的总承包商,米勒现在承诺所有Elmhurst新的采购订单和分包合同将包括根据发行和接受日期锁定定价的语言。

他说:“我们不能以突然和意外的成本增加而沿着这条路沿着这条路走,这最终会影响我们在市场上竞争租赁空间的能力。”

Tearing Up Contracts: Legal Views

Lacking escalation clauses, steel mills and steel service centers sometimes, like the insulation supplier, simply tear up the purchase contracts and demand more money. It is unclear, however, how many steel fabricators cross-out agreed prices or have escalation clauses.

律师说,由于钢铁供应行业享受并利用可能是临时的市场电力倾斜的优势,承包商几乎无法做到这样做。

Sherman&Howard的律师Stephen A. Hess说,钢铁价格飞涨的钢铁价格“根据供应合同,实行严重的不当行为,从完全拒绝兑现合同到供应商的要求,要求超出约定的合同价格的付款。”

Contract law nominally provides some protection to buyers, but contractors rarely want to pursue even promising litigation when capitulation is a more expedient – albeit painful – alternative, he says.

市场力量和缺乏价格竞争可能会鼓励或允许钢铁厂通过升级条款将价格风险转移给承包商。

钢价预测

If a beam or product of a specific size is needed and only one steel mill or service center in the area can supply it, the supplier enjoys an edge.

到目前为止,钢制制造商,勃起和钢铁供应中心一直不愿公开讨论钢铁价格尖峰的幕后调整。金属服务中心研究所(Metal Service Center Institute)是该协会的成员包括钢铁厂的钢铁服务中心,钢铁厂的分销商拒绝回答问题。

In some cases, the pricing “tactics are predatory,” says Hess. “In other cases mid-stream suppliers have little choice as they are caught in fixed-price supply contracts with contractors but are compelled to purchase steel at ever-increasing market prices; honoring their contracts may ruin their businesses.”

在某些情况下,在某些情况下,史蒂文·亨德森(Steven Henderson链条给所有者。

“If orders can’t be fulfilled at contract prices, and there is no material cost escalation clause, parties are forced" to look for a legal remedy, he says. But forcing another party to pay for cost increases due to market fluctuations in material prices "generally isn't helpful," he says

“违反合同从根本上没有任何错误,但是后果远远超出了特定的合同纠纷。”

亨德森(Henderson)并没有戴上手套并撤退到他们的角落,而是建议通过将争端作为商业谈判来更好地服务当事方。亨德森说,以说​​服所有者收取费用的共同目标的供应商和承包商“可能会发现值得额外的钱来保存业务关系。”

所有者也从共享成本风险中受益,因为承包商更有可能提供现实的定价,而无需过高的标价来考虑易波动性材料成本的风险。新利18备用官网登录

Partnerships and Contingencies

David Alford, regional vice president of preconstruction at McCarthy Building Cos., agrees that cooperation is the best approach.

他说,他的公司目前正在“与我们的许多钢铁贸易伙伴及其供应商合作,以了解当前的材料市场”,以便在正确的时间购买。

以防万一合作不占上风,可能需要一种新型的紧急基金。

埃尔姆赫斯特(Elmhurst)的米勒(Miller)说:“我们试图提出次要的意外情况 - 通货膨胀意外情况。”“这很痛苦,因为投资者不喜欢看到。”