As recovery continues, the US economy remains about 8% below where it was in February 2020, said Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Data & Analytics, citing impacts from rising COVID-19 cases, but total construction starts are expected to increase 7% in 2021.
“我们当然在这里取得了进步，”布兰奇在道奇建筑展望-3期间说rdQuarter Update webinar Aug. 24. He points to stimulus packages and businesses reopening over the past several months, but “over the last several weeks, we’ve not made much progress as COVID cases rise again from the Delta variant.”
并非每个地区都处于同一地位，在爱达荷州，蒙大拿州，内布拉斯加州和罗德岛等州的经济体完全恢复，而中大西洋地区则落后于该国其他地区。
Branch说，在住宅领域，对单个家庭住宅的需求仍然是“稳固的”。该类别的开始价值在2021年增长14％之后，该类别的开始价值将在2021年增长9％。
但是，“材料价格上涨使入门级房屋更难建造，这当然是需求。”布兰奇说，这表明兴趣将开始在年轻的透视购购房者中消失，这使他们回到了多户住房。
Branch说：“对多户住宅的需求再次得到了增加。”道奇报告称，去年下跌1％后，预计2021年的开局将上升5％。
In the non-residential sector, the dollar value of commercial starts is up 9%, following a sharp 20% decline in 2020. The majority of this growth continues to be spurred by warehouse construction. “I’ve run out of superlatives to discuss the warehouse market,” says Branch. “We’re looking at yet another smashed record in warehouse construction this year.”
道奇预计，办公室和零售业在2021年都开始增长4％，而酒店开业将继续下降18％。然而，制造业是一个“惊喜” - 去年下降了58％之后，2021年的起步增长了37％。
机构建设预计将上升1％，最大的部门教育下降了3％。预计医疗保健开始将增长7％。布兰奇说：“医疗保健部门无疑已经看到了其相当大的关注。”他预计，他希望在未来几年内持续数年的医院建设增加。
In the non-building sector, overall starts are up 5%, with environmental infrastructure and power and gas plants showing increases of 13% and 18%, respectively. Highways are down 2% while bridges increased 1%.
Branch noted that this forecast was not reliant on President Joe Biden’s infrastructure package, which is unlikely to have an impact until 2022.
