“美国经济现在正在竞赛,”联合建筑商和承包商的首席经济学家阿尼尔班·巴苏(Anirban Basu)说,他补充说,下半年应该“壮观地实现经济增长。”他在7月14日的网络研讨会上介绍了他的分析,标题为“建筑主管的2021 Q2建筑经济预测。”

While single-family construction has been strong throughout the past year, multifamily is now beginning to grow as well, according to the American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index. During the pandemic, many cities experienced a “mass exodus,” said Basu, but multifamily and apartment construction will be quite active going forward.

In its mid-year outlook, Dodge Data & Analytics also offered a positive forecast for multifamily construction but with a caveat: construction remains down in large metro areas such as New York, Houston and Los Angeles, bringing down overall numbers.

根据道奇(Dodge)的说法,在非住宅市场中,商业开始预计将在2021年增长5%,而仓库领域的大部分工作都将增加。

Still, some non-residential sectors remain in decline. “I really believe the office construction segment will be among the last segments to recover,” said Basu, noting that many workers are likely to continue working from home.

根据美国人口普查局的数据,截至2021年5月,办公室建设的支出同比下降了8.5%,同一时期的住宿建设支出下降了22.3%。

ABC’s construction backlog indicator rose to 8.5 months in June, its highest rate in several months. High material prices and an ongoing labor shortage remain the largest obstacles to the recovery.

“We just do not have enough skilled workers in America,” said Basu. In addition to increased backlog, he points to workers that will be needed for the upcoming infrastructure package. “If anything, the demand for these workers is going to increase.”