The first six months of 2021 have seen big materials cost hikes, increasing labor shortages and uncertainty over federal action on a major infrastructure package. Despite the headwinds, ENR’s Construction Industry Confidence Index has surged up 17 points to a rating of 68—the highest single jump between quarters since the index was started in 2009. The previous record was 16 points between Q4 of 2011 and Q1 of 2012.
该指数措施执行情绪有关the current market will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. A rating above 50 shows a growing market. The measure is based on 207 responses from industry execs to surveys sent between May 14 and June 21 to U.S. companies on ENR lists of leading general contractors, subcontractors and design firms.
除了电力外，该指数在所有轨道上的市场上都上升了。新利18备用娱乐领域的信心增加了一倍以上，零售和酒店和款待几乎翻了一番。美国整体经济的乐观情绪更加强大，以70个评分，这是自2018年第二季度以来最高的。
首席财务官看到一个强大的市场
在总部位于新泽西州新泽西州的建筑金融管理协会（CFMA）的最新Confindex调查结果中，可以看到类似的信心。每个季度，它都会对一般和民事承包商以及分包商的200 CFO进行有关市场和业务状况的200个CFO。ConfIndex基于四个独立的财务和市场组成部分，每个财务组成部分的评分为1至200。100的评级表示稳定的市场；较高的评分表明市场增长。Confindex上升到115个评分，比第一季度的105增长了9.5％。
“业务状况”和“当前状况”指数分别上涨了16.3％，分别为121和114。“财务状况”指数上涨了3.8％，达到110。最小的颠簸是在“前一年前景”指数中，仅攀升1.8％，达到116。
“If you look at a year ago, June 2020, [there] are really remarkable differences,” says Stuart Binstock, CFMA’s CEO. He notes the 70.8% increase in the “business conditions” index since Q2 of last year as an example.
“What’s most remarkable is the strength of the demand for construction services coming out of this pandemic,” says Anirban Basu, CEO of economic consultant Sage Policy Group, Baltimore, and a CFMA adviser. The recovery of the construction industry seems to be right in line with that of the overall U.S. economy, instead of a few steps behind, he says. More executives indicated on the Confindex survey that their backlog has increased from a year ago than those who indicated a drop, Basu adds.
经济学家至少将某些行业的韧性归因于流行前的变化。他说：“我们在行业中看到了很多合并，许多合并，收购，规模的创建以及与建筑公司的许多垂直整合，试图将成本内部化。”新利18备用官网登录这使公司努力处理成本问题，降低了开销，并使他们更加高效。“现在，随着经济的某些部分真正升温，[这些公司]从运营的角度来看，状况良好。”
在大流行期间寻求的效率即使在美国的大流行逐渐降低。Binstock说：“过去，[行业]曾经有很大的口袋无法合理化为什么他们应该投资于技术。”他认为，毫无疑问，现在需要接受新技术。
该行业的长期劳动力短缺可能因大流行而加剧。ENR CICI调查的受访者中约有57％表明员工短缺比去新利18备用年差，不到9％的人说差距已经缓解。大多数需求是项目经理，被29％的受访者列出。
但是巴苏（Basu）认为行业公司的长期变化正在帮助他们度过风暴。他说：“在过去的十年中，[公司]已经改变了标准操作程序和组织结构的变化，这在此期间已经很好地定位了它们。”所有效率的最终结果意味着利润率通常保持强大。
蓬勃发展的住房市场是乐观的另一个原因。巴苏（Basu）建议，更多的年轻美国人“进入了三十多岁，通常与搬到郊区相吻合。”大流行已经推动了远离城市的运动。“问问自己为什么曼哈顿如此昂贵。接近，”巴苏说，特别是良好的工作，娱乐和便利设施。他说：“但是在一个远程工作，在线购物和流媒体的世界中，接近并不是那么有价值。”
Retail space vacated in the wake of bankruptcies by big box retailers has pushed that trend as investors look to monetize that real estate. Basu expects an acceleration of investment in the suburban market. “Developers chase high valuations, and the rising valuations are in the suburbs,” he says.
