Sage Policy Group首席执行官经济学家Anirban Basu表示，Covid-19的“共享全球经验”仍然是塑造美国经济的主要因素。随着美国进入2021年，大流行的浪潮阻碍了经济增长，巴苏预测了下半年的经济和建筑业的激增。

美国和欧洲大部分地区在2020年的下降幅度很大，美国的增长率下降了3.4％，西班牙和意大利等欧洲国家的产出下降分别为11.1％和9.2％。

“The year was really very uneven in terms of performance,” said Basu. There was “raging momentum” at the start of 2020, prior to the emergence of COVID-19. By March, the U.S. economy was shutting down, which resulted in a 5% decline in GDP in the first quarter of 2020.

“[Negative 5%] was merely the appetizer,” said Basu, as the second quarter of 2020 saw a GDP drop of 31.4%.

然而，在第三季度，美国看到了V形恢复。经济反弹33.4％。第四季度带来了更为适中的4％上升。

“Through the early stages of recovery this U.S. economy proved how rapidly it can repair itself,” said Basu. Still, even with the growth of those two quarters, growth is smaller than at the end of 2019.

Overall employment numbers followed a similar trajectory. In early March, a loss of 1.4 million jobs was recorded; by April, an additional 20.8 million jobs were lost. The U.S. began to add jobs again in May, but at a much slower rate. Now “momentum is fading,” said Basu. “By December I’m sorry to say, we’re losing jobs again.” He points to the months-long stretch between federal stimulus packages as part of the reason for waning economic growth. As of January 2021, the U.S. is down 9.6 million jobs year over year.

在大流行的初月，特定的建筑工作受到了重大打击，从2020年2月到2020年4月，其工作占14.6％的工作。但是，从2020年2月到2021年1月，建筑总体上仅损失了3.3％的工作。区域很重要，巴苏说。德克萨斯州，亚利桑那州和佐治亚州的都会区看到，州长专注于保持经济开放，减少了失业。密歇根州，纽约和新泽西州等州等州由于更严格的健康指南而遭受了更多的失业。

展望未来，巴苏预计在2021年上半年的供应方面会有麻烦。他说，消费者的需求很高，尽管许多人在大流行期间失去了工作，但随着经济关闭，全家家庭储蓄率上升。

巴苏说：“陷入这场危机，储蓄率约为8％。”“到四月，已经达到34％。”尽管经济在夏季部分重新开放，但支出增加，但储蓄率仍然为13.7％。

在供应方面，封锁继续阻碍许多企业的经济复苏。巴苏说，即使在需求很高的时候，餐馆的产能减少，在可预见的未来取消其他活动也使该国陷入衰退。国会目前正在讨论的额外刺激只会进一步进一步的需求，这可能会导致“壮观”的下半年。

As vaccines become widely available, "the second half of the year [will be] brilliant for the economy,” said Basu, “setting the stage for a much stronger 2022, and more demand for construction services.”