The COVID-19 pandemic is now into its 10th month, and a second wave of the virus is hitting the country hard. However, the prospects of a vaccine are giving many industry firms hope that the construction market may start to recover later in 2021.
The concern about the emergence of COVID-19 can be seen in the results of ENR’s latest Construction Industry Confidence Index survey. The index, which had plunged 20 points to a 36 rating in the second quarter of 2020, and edged up two points in the third quarter, continues to advance very slowly, as the CICI Index now is up only two more points, to a 40 rating.
The index measures executive sentiment about the current market, where it will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. A rating above 50 shows a growing market. The measure is based on 364 responses by industry execs to surveys sent between Nov. 8 and Dec. 7 to 6,000 U.S. companies on ENR’s lists of leading general contractors, subcontractors and design firms.
Many industry execs believe the industry will be back in a growth mode by the end of 2021. Only 9% of respondents believe the current market has bottomed out and is back in a growth mode, compared to 45% who believe it is still declining. On the other hand, 41% believe that the market will be growing in 12 to 18 months, compared to only 22% who believed it will still be in decline.
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CFMA: CFOs Looking for Turnaround
另一个晴雨表是总部位于新泽西州普林斯顿州新泽西州建筑金融管理协会（CFMA）的最新Confindex调查的即将发布的结果，该调查表明，首席金融官对近期担心，但相信终结2021将在市场上有反弹。
Each quarter, CFMA polls 200 CFOs from general and civil contractors and subcontractors about markets and business conditions. The Confindex is based on four separate financial and market components, each rated on a scale of 1 to 200. A rating of 100 indicates a stable market; higher ratings indicate market growth.
“The Confindex rose to a 93 rating from an 87 rating in the previous quarter,” says Stuart Binstock, CFMA’s CEO. The “business conditions” component of the Confindex also rose, going from 71 in the previous quarter to an 80 rating in this quarter, reflecting continued concern about the current market.
The “financial conditions” component gained three points to 103, from 100, and the “current conditions” component rose four points to an 83 rating. More significantly, the “year-ahead outlook” rose to 105 from 98, a positive rating showing the belief that the market will begin to grow again at the end of 2021.
Binstock notes that CFMA’s Confindex survey also asked how long CFOs believed it would take for the market to recover from the COVID-19 downturn. Of the CFOs surveyed, 31.0% believed that the market is already beginning to recover, compared to 25.6% last quarter.
一线希望
希望的原因之一是，在春季，美国经济一直在爆发。经济顾问SAGE政策集团首席执行官Anirban Basu说：“自5月以来，经济一直在恢复，而且数量比预期的要好得多。”
巴苏说：“经济不好，但还不如我们想象的那样糟糕。”但是，他警告说，尽管美国经济似乎正在做出V形反弹，但现在判断建筑是否会效仿为时过早。
Another positive indicator from the Confindex survey is that the primary concern of CFMA members is once again staff shortages. Staffing had long been the No. 1 concern of CFOs in the survey until it dropped below market concerns in the third quarter, Binstock notes. However, in this quarter, 47% of Confindex respondents said they were concerned about skills shortages, compared to 43% who were concerned about getting new work.
This worry about maintaining staff can be seen in the CICI survey. ENR asked respondents whether they planned to add to staff in 2021. Of those responding to the question, 49.9% said they did plan to add new employees in 2021. While this is well below last year’s level, where 82.8% of respondents said they planned to add staff in 2020, it still shows that many firms believe there will be a need for new employees in 2021.
新利18备用Enr还询问受访者是否计划在2021年提高薪水或削减薪水。在回应中，有54.1％的人表示他们计划加薪，而39.2％的人表示他们计划保持薪水。只有2.8％的人说削减薪水是在议程上。新利18备用Enr还询问了预期加薪的水平。有235家公司提供了有关预期升高水平的数据，平均增加3.64％。
The COVID-19 crisis clearly has taken its toll on the markets, and no one knows what 2021 will bring. However, there is a growing hope that the market will slowly turn around and be back on positive footing by the end of next year. “The general feeling is that in a year, the market will be back. It won’t be as good as where we were a year ago, but it won’t be as bad as now,” says Basu.
