While worries regarding the COVID-19 crisis persist, construction is on the road to recovery, according to analysts.
“Construction activity continues to dig itself out of one of the deepest and shortest recessions in U.S. history,” says Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Data & Analytics. Still, he warns, “it will be a long road back. Through eight months, the value of total construction starts is 14% below 2019.”
Non-residential starts are down 24% on a year-to-date basis, with declines across the board, according to Dodge data. Branch notes that warehouse construction continues to be the one strong spot, as the popularity of online shopping continues. Non-building construction is down 20% overall, despite growth in the streets and bridges sector. The largest projects that broke ground in recent months include the $1-billion Facebook data center in Gallatin, Tenn.; a $740-million Texas Instruments fabrication facility in Richardson, Texas; and a $1.3-billion wastewater pollution control plant in San Francisco.
住宅建设仍然相当强大，年仅下降了1％。Branch说：“单个家庭开始的力量正在抵消多户家庭结构中的弱点。”
As for the future, Branch points to the end of government programs as a stumbling block for the industry. “The expiration of enhanced unemployment insurance benefits and small business loans that were provided in the CARES Act, the budget crises facing state and local governments and the impending expiration of the FAST Act on Sept. 30 will all have a dampening effect on starts in the months to come,” he says.
AEC咨询公司PSMJ Resources的高级负责人David Burstein表示同意。虽然PSMJ的季度市场预测（QMF）调查报告说，截至今年8月，只有不到15％的受访者有重大的项目延迟或取消，但这种趋势必须继续进行联邦资金。
“The question for 2021 is whether the feds will step up to fund the tax shortfalls experienced by state and local agencies,” says Burstein. “My guess is that they will, but it’s not a certainty. If the feds don’t step up, 2021 will be a rough year for A/E/C firms that serve the state and local markets.”
QMF调查的受访者中，不到5％的人报告了大幅减少的人员，这部分是薪水保护贷款计划的部分信用。
“The AEC Industry has fared much better than most industries during the COVID-19 pandemic,” he adds.
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木材价格上涨
In the commodities sector, the big story is lumber prices, which have risen 250% since bottoming out in April, according to IHS Markit.
IHS Markit的高级经济学家Deni Koenhemsi说：“在北美，我们肯定已经看到了木材价格的出色价格，特别是软木木材价格的幅度很大。”
在第三季度的预测中，IHS Markit预测，2020年软木木材价格将上涨19.1％，这比第二季度的预测情况巨大，预计该年度价格下跌0.7％。在第二季度预测中预计下降3.3％之后，今年胶合板的价格现在预计为4.5％。
Koenhemsi将价格上涨归因于“经典供应和需求不匹配的经典案例”。
她说：“当大流行到达美国时，美国和加拿大的生产商都决定削减生产，认为住房建设会大大放缓。”但是需求很快反弹。“我们已经看到了住房起步和许可证的V形恢复。”
劳动趋势
关于工会劳动趋势的最新建筑劳动研究委员会报告显示，西北地区的工资在2020年的工资最高，为3.9％，高于2019年的3.4％。西北地区包括阿拉斯加，爱达荷州，俄勒冈州和华盛顿。
The South Central region, which includes Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas, recorded the lowest wage increase for 2020, at 1.8%.
