As the COVID-19 pandemic crisis continues, economic consequences are being felt throughout the world, and the construction industry is no exception.
Rider Levett Bucknall总裁朱利安·安德森（Julian Anderson）说：“在过去的五到六年中，[年度]建筑成本升级一直处于4％至5％的范围内，偶尔会增加峰值。”Covid-19“显然影响了承包商和分包商的招标策略。”
在上一季度，通货膨胀已削减到0.4％。
Private Sector Appetite
“Looking ahead, the key is just how quickly the economy recovers,” says Anderson, adding that it will hinge on “the appetite of the private sector to continue investing in developments and the financial ability of state and municipal governments to continue with their capital improvement projects.”
Overall construction starts have plummeted in the first five months of 2020, falling 12%, according to Dodge Data & Analytics. A number of high value projects—among them the $1.3-billion Manhattan West office tower in New York City, the $950-million expansion of the Portland International Airport in Portland, Ore., and a $1.3-billion widening of Interstate 635 near Dallas—broke ground this year. Still, nonresidential, residential and nonbuilding sectors all experienced declines compared to the January-May time period of 2019.
道奇（Dodge）首席经济学家理查德·布兰奇（Richard Branch）说：“共同19-19的大流行和衰退对建筑部门产生了重大负面影响。
Nonresidential building starts bore the brunt of the overall decline, falling 19% through the first five months of the year. Nonbuilding construction also experienced a steep drop of 16% in the same time period. Due to a strong first quarter for single-family housing, residential work dropped only 3% in the same time period.
“May was likely the low point for the economy,” says Branch. “As businesses and local areas continue the reopening process, it will support a modest recovery in construction starts in the second half of the year.”
前进，“消费者和业务信心将是这种恢复道路的主要因素，尤其是在考虑第二波Covid-19和/或更多局部爆发的风险以及财政刺激的积极影响时，分支说。
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向后弹跳
对于大宗商品，自4月份达到低点以来，价格已经集结。
“从c的力量ommodities and U.S. equities, many market participants appear to anticipate a rapid recovery in the second half of this year, implying only a mild second wave of COVID-19 infections and few economic disruptions this fall,” says John Mothersole, director of research at IHS Markit.
IHS Markit Mothersole指出,尽管提高了its second and third quarter forecasts in the past six weeks, an overall decline is still expected in the long term. The IHS Material Price Index is still projected to be more than 10% lower at the end of 2022 than it was in the middle of 2019.
“Prices do recover over the near term, but the weakness in demand, coupled with the excess capacity it has exposed in many sectors means that the rebound in pricing will be prolonged,” Mothersole adds.
Structural steel prices are projected to drop 4.2% in 2020, slightly down from the first quarter’s projection of a 3.9% decline. IHS Markit projects an additional 4% drop in 2021 before prices rally 2.5% in 2022.
IHS Markit的定价和购买副总监John Anton说：“ [钢铁厂现在正在推动价格上涨。”但是，他说：“风险在不利方面保持一致”，因为第二波Covid-19可以减少产品需求。
“Upside risk is that mills idling create a short supply tightness once demand picks up. Such a tightness—and price jump—would be very short-lived, as mills would restart furnaces at the first chance,” says Anton.
根据IHS Markit的第二季度预测，木材价格预计将在2020年下跌0.7％。下降标志着与第一季度的投影发生了很大的转变，增长了4.6％。IHS Markit预计2021年的反弹为1.1％，其次是2022年的3.3％。
Looking at Labor
On the labor side, the latest Construction Labor Research Council report on union labor trends shows the compensation package is highest in the Middle Atlantic region, which includes Washington, D.C., Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania, at $69.40 per hour.
The lowest wage, at $42.11 per hour, is in the South Central region, including Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas. The average hourly U.S. package is $57.13. Overall total first year packages rose 2.9% in 2019, while total package increases for all contract years grew by the same amount in the same time period.
该公司报告说，锅炉制造商的收入为66.93美元，水管工和管道运输车的收入分别为65.61美元和65.33美元。在频谱的下端，劳动者每小时赚取46.12美元，屋顶工为46.37美元。
