With COVID-19 economic slowdowns, and the resulting drop in demand for oil, gas and electricity, the outlook for traditional energy sector growth and capital investment is dim, if not outright grim. But even with cratered oil and gas prices, renewable energy is emerging as a sector on the move.

“This is a magnitude unlike anything we’ve planned around,” says Deepa Poduval, senior managing director and associate vice president of Black & Veatch’s management consulting business who specializes in the oil, gas and utility sector. “We always talk about oil and gas and the multiple cycles that the industry goes through. This is different than that.”

建造continues on most oil and gas projects, including massive liquefied natural gas plants, but global politics and demand destruction have upended the outlook for the near and mid-term, Poduval says. After current projects are complete, clients will likely pause before making new investments. “I don’t think we get through this next six to nine months without multiple bankruptcies,” she says. “What will come out of the other end is a leaner industry with larger producers and bigger balances.”

Baird Equity的主要建筑业分析师Andrew Wittmann表示，对于为石油和天然气行业服务的行业公司而言，“我们在2020年第2季度从2020年开始，从2021年开始，我们看到（收入和收益中）的减少，鉴于客户的削减幅度为30，而苛刻的削减是预测的30-75％的资本预算减少。”他指出，一家公司的石油和天然气利润从其高峰开始下降了60％。

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Poduval预计，全球放缓将加速可再生能源和电动汽车的增长，但表示过渡不会瞬间。The drop in power demand has given low-cost renewables a larger share of production, providing power systems “levels of wind and solar power they wouldn’t have had otherwise without another decade of investment,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said in late March.

能源专业的转移

Shell，Total，BP，Duke Energy和Nextera最近几个月宣布承诺，即使油价以创纪录的低价格降低，即使油价降低了。壳牌公司每年投资20亿美元在其可再生能源业务上。

“我们认为，当消费者和企业应对经济不确定性的挑战时，低成本可再生能源的市场机会从来没有更大。”公用事业公司FPL的母公司Nextera的首席执行官James L. Robo说。世界上最大的可再生发电机。

In its first-quarter earnings call April 22, he said that despite the pandemic-related economic slowdown, NextEra expects to complete 5,000 MW of wind and solar projects in 2020 and $1 billion worth of battery storage in 2021. Duke Energy said April 28 that it will double the amount of renewble energy on its grid to 16,000 MW by 2025.

French oil and gas company Total said it is cutting capital spending more than 20% after the oil price collapse. The firm remains committed to its12.9 million metric tons-per-year capacity Mozambique LNG project in Africa, expected to start up in 2024, although ExxonMobil said in April it would delay a final investment decision on the Rovuma LNG project in that country, which had been set for later this year, while it worked with partners to reduce costs. Analysts were not optimistic how soon there would be a decision to proceed on the $27 billion to $30 billion project.

Total强调，它不会削减其在其可再生能源单位中的20亿美元支出。首席执行官帕特里克·普扬（Patrick Pouyanne）说，他认为可再生能源是一个机会，预测他们将来将成为其业务的25％。

但是该公司和其他人看到了大流行的清洁能源项目。新利18备用网址福布斯在4月20日的一篇文章中说，可再生能源行业“足够重要……他们和化石燃料庞然大物都接触到宏观经济部队”。

BW Research对3月份的失业数据分析说，三月份有106,000多名美国清洁能源工人在三月份失业。

随着预期的削减，清洁能源和油气部门分别倾向于联邦刺激基金。特朗普政府正在为石油和天然气计划努力，但对于可再生能源而言并不类似。

海上风如何吹？

即便如此，海上风能也可以为可再生能源提供巨大的提升。Approval of the first commercial-scale offshore wind farm, the 800-MW Vineyard Wind project off the coast of Massachusetts, is expected by year-end, James Bennett, renewable energy chief at the U.S. Interior Dept.’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management told industry executives April 21.

他还说，今年钢铁将在弗吉尼亚海岸的水中。

与丹麦开发商Orsted合作的Dominion Energy将与两人企业的飞行员在联邦水域建造第一批离岸风力涡轮机。Dominion说，施工将在夏季之前开始，并在年底之前结束。

贝内特（Bennett）预计，在十年结束之前，将在新利18备用网址东海岸建造12到15个项目，资本投资约为250亿美元。已经提交了七个项目的建筑和运营计划，预计还有五个项目。新利18备用网址

Bennett说，Boem现在正在确定是否需要在外部大陆架上租用更多领土以实现州海上风能目标。其他挑战包括传输，他说，与每个项目的岸上一行相比，“可能需要更大的视野”。他说，离岸风“将是将来能源的关键组成部分”。

Despite Bennett's projections, offshore wind development faces delay from current market realities.

All project permitting was delayed last year when BOEM decided it needed to determine the cumulative effect of the construction of multiple wind farms, which pushed back Vineyard Wind’s final environmental impact statement by 17 months.

Boem官员说，Covid-19的限制影响了代理人员，但他预计会有批准时间表会滑倒。他说：“有一些挑战，但我们继续前进。”

Too Much Oil-Price Change

在纽约，病毒影响已推迟到八月的一个关键项目南叉风的公开听证会。

但是开发商Orsted在4月22日告诉马里兰州监管机构，根据葡萄园风批准评论，其离岸项目的商业运营将推迟到2023年。完成至2023年底。

两家公司在公开声明中都表明，他们的决定与Boem去年宣布的延误有关，以批准葡萄园风项目。市场支持者推测，特朗普政府政治不支持海上风，也可能是一个因素。

Matt Palmer, WSP Global Inc. vice president and offshore wind manager, said that accelerated design of offshore wind facilities as BOEM approves permits could provide the U.S. an economic boost when it is badly needed.

尽管如此，病毒和石油价格崩溃将如何影响可再生能源的问题仍然存在矛盾的观点。

S＆P Global Ratings在4月17日举行的网络研讨会上表示，当病毒和低油价撞击时，全球能源过渡到可再生资源的过渡开始不断提高，这使得与低化石燃料价格竞争变得难以竞争。但是他补充说，石油价格波动造成的疲倦可能“增加可​​再生投资”。