Fears of the coronavirus in China spreading there and globally are affecting world markets, and the construction industry is bracing for slowing economic growth, at least in the short term.
[For ENR’s latest coverage of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, click here]
Some U.S. construction participants are seeing or fearing domestic project interruptions from materials sourced in China, accordingto a Feb. 20 Bisnowreport, while Canadian Construction Association experts urged the audience of a Feb. 18 webinar to analyze supply-chain "vulnerablities," said a Daily Commercial Newsreport.
Wisconsin solar plants fear project delays due to late component shipments, while Georgia contractors say respirator masks are in short supply.
Hong Kong's construction industry has laid off 50,000 workers as work slows due to disrupted China-based labor and materials supply, said aFeb. 24 reportin The South China Morning Post, while Singapore construction firms, which employ mostly Chinese labor, are seeking advice on invokingforce majeure建筑合同中的条款Reuters.
With infections and deaths now up in Italy, attendance at a major mid-Marchreal estate trade showin Cannes, Frances, about one hour drive from the Italian border, will likely suffer but was still on with plans for more virtual links, says a Feb. 28 U.K. report. The MIPIM show attracts about 27,000 annual attendees.
涂料制造商PPG于2月24日宣布了144,000美元的公司捐款和员工与中国救援工作的匹配，但并未详细介绍其在该国16个制造地点和4个技术中心的4,000名中国员工的影响。
The epidemic, which is centered in Wuhan in Hubei province, has already killed more than 2,000 across the country and beyond, with the bulk of fatalities and the 80,000 infected people in the province.
"Although its long-term consequences have yet to fully play out, the coronavirus outbreak already provides some lessons about how you can better prepare your company to deal with future large-scale crises," says James B. Rice Jr., deputy director of the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics in aFeb. 27 Harvard Business Reviewarticle.
China Disruptions
"The新冠病毒is showing itself to be a potentially serious risk to the Chinese economy, and it is safe to assume that economic growth in China will be impacted both this quarter and next," says Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Data & Analytics.
“China’s economy has been slowing anyway, and now, just when a phase-one agreement on trade has been reached with the U.S., there is the coronavirus flareup,” adds Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect chief economist. “Travel restrictions and plant closings will cost the economy dearly.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping said that big projects, especially those in manufacturing, should start construction on time, adding that boosting consumption was a key hedge against the epidemic’s impact, Reuters reported on Feb. 15.
China’s construction industry is facing pressures because most building sites are in urban areas and remain shut dowh, with workers and contractors, who come from all over China, having more trouble returning to work, according to World Cement Association CEO Ian Riley, reported by the Financial Times.
He said while demand for cement is typically lower in the first quarter, production recovery will be slower this year, as manufacturers face new logistical issues in transporting material.
The association expects the Chinese government to implement stimulus measures to boost spending on infrastructure once virus spread is better controlled. which could concentrate annual demand in the second half, potentially leading to supply shortages and higher cement prices, says the Times.
Work on the Belt and Road project in Asia also has slowed, with more than 133 countries now restricting entry to Chinese citizens or recent visitors to prevent virus spread, according to China National Immigration Agency data and dozens of基础架构项目已放慢或完全停止新利18备用网址due to limitations on supplies and travel.
美国联合总承包商的首席经济学家肯·西蒙森（Ken Simonson）建议，随着旅游业的下降，美国酒店和娱乐场所，尤其是在拉斯维加斯和夏威夷的场所可能会很容易受到伤害。
分析人士说，丹麦风力涡轮机巨头维斯塔斯（Vestas）正在密切关注这场危机，该危机在中国拥有大型组件制造基地和供应链，并且可能比竞争对手更容易受到曝光。在2月份的4个收入电话中，首席执行官亨里克·安德森（Henrik新利18备用 Andersen）预测，停止的运营可能会在月中重新启动，但“我们不是决定的人。整个供应链必须决定。”
China is now developing what could become the world's largest offshore wind market over the next decade.
'Pandemic Force Majeure'
If the coronovirus causes a long shutdown, “the whole world will face a pandemic force majeure of some sort that we will have to deal with,” Andersen said. “It’s as worrying [to Vestas] as much as it affects the whole global supply chain.”
Asked whether Vestas can compensate for the delay, Andersen said the company will compensate as much as it can, but “we can’t rush, blades have to cure.”
市场分析公司Fitch Solutions outlined, in a网络研讨会于2月7日, major risk factors for the Chinese economy and for global markets.
China market analyst Brian Coulton at Fitch Ratings says that because the country’s services sector accounts for a larger share of GDP today than in 2003 during the SARS virus epidemic, “the much harsher official ‘lock-down’ restrictions in place would also imply that, if the [coronavirus] epidemic were to last three months, its economic impact would very likely be more severe.”
IHS Markit Karkit研究总监John Mothersole表示，上周总体商品价格上周下跌了1％，根据IHS Markit材料价格指数，十种商品中的八个中下跌，冠状病毒是一个关键因素。
“市场显示2019年退出的所有积极势头都消失了，”说。自12月以来的果肉，金属，天然和合成纤维的价格上涨，上周上周下跌。
Mothersole suggests that oil, already a “vulnerable commodity,” could also be affected.
“IHS Markit energy experts' initial view is that mainland Chinese oil demand could be as much as 500,000 barrels per day lower for the duration of the epidemic—weaker demand that is unlikely to be offset by higher demand elsewhere. Given that mainland China represents about half of projected oil demand growth for 2020, and given strong projected supply growth this year, oil markets could be exposed,” Mothersole says.
Reports on impacts to construction projects in China are spotty.
Precautions underway
ENR sources within the country say the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has issued, for at least a handful of provinces, an official notice to delay all construction projects, with approval required to resume. One source says the delay could last until the epidemic runs its course.
Authorities in Guangdong province in southern China have issued stiffer directives on urban domestic sewage treatment, particularly wastewater from virus treatment facilities.
Sources say there have not been dramatic impacts on Chinese projects abroad, such as in Africa, because many project managers generally have not traveled home for the New Year holiday due to expense.
But Industry sector managers in Israel, where China has had a major construction presence over the last decade, express concern that materials shortfalls are already apparent due to worker restrictions, says areport in Ha'aretz. They point to suspended shipments of stone for paving and building facades, with plumbing fixtures, tiles and coatings ikely to follow.
As work begins to resume in China, precautions are being taken by some, including Shanghai-based architecture firm CCDI, whose staff resumed work on Feb. 10, says company manager Chen Xiaomin. But he notes that staffers were encouraged to work at home for the next few weeks, “ since this virus has around a 14-day incubation period.”
纽约市建筑物承包商Sto的一家总部位于香港的建筑管理分支机构Sto的校长迈克尔·卡瓦纳（Michael Kavanagh）表示，广东的当局（其大多数分包商设施都基于该机构）已提醒企业直到2月17日才开放。
“There are a lot of products manufactured in China being shipped around the world—steel, wood, plaster, aluminum, glazed partition systems, cement and cementitious products, paints, HVAC equipment, electrical equipment, light fixtures—the list goes on,” he says, noting that production may still not be back to normal until March, “if they are able to control the virus.”
但是母亲认为这可能是一种过度反应。“假设对中国大陆经济的影响不仅仅是暂时的冲击，目前我们认为，商品市场可能很快恢复了他们在2019年底表现出的守护的乐观情绪，价格恢复了任何损失，”他认为。
