虽然来自于关税的影响引发了飙升的母亲ial prices in 2018, a more modest escalation is expected in the upcoming year—in part due to an ongoing slowdown of construction starts. “In 2018, construction material costs are rising at levels last seen before the recession,” says Deni Koenhemsi, senior economist at IHS Markit. Material prices are up 7.5%, she says, largely driven by a 10% increase in fabrication steel and a 30% hike in refined petroleum products. In 2019, IHS Markit predicts a more modest 3.5% increase as price escalation for steel and fuel declines.
钢板的价格迅速下降,Koenhemsi points out. “Sheet is a buyer’s market through at least the first quarter of 2019, and likely persisting through midyear.” She says that “the major reason for declines is that prices were simply too high. The tariff rate is 25%, but in July 2018 hot-rolled sheet peaked at more than 50% above European prices.” She adds that “despite [tariffs], imports are strong and are pushing prices downwards. By early 2019 prices should reach a lower equilibrium.”
石油价格are also beginning to fall. After a 30.3% increase in 2018, IHS Markit predicts a 2.2% decrease in the coming year. “Fears of a tightening supply environment have eased in recent months because of resilient production and an easing of sanctions on Iranian crude exports,” says Koenhemsi.
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ConstructConnect首席经济学家Alex Carrick也有类似的前景。他说：“美国对软木木材，钢铁和铝的初步关税给所有人带来了良好的恐惧。”“似乎建筑材料成本迅速朝着天空发展。新利18备用官网登录但是，有几种交叉流通过降低投入的需求来使效果散发出来。”
Carrick cites three reasons for this turn of events: new car sales and housing starts that have slowed due to climbing interest rates; a delay in new projects due to the ongoing labor shortage; and the price of oil falling globally.
The economist warns, however, that this “period of relative calm” could come to an end should the U.S. impose another round of tariffs on Chinese goods. “Additional turmoil on the trade front may be the lever that tips the U.S. economy into a slowdown,” he adds.
10月，道奇建筑展望发布了，预测建筑业的持续升级率从2019年开始。道奇数据和分析副总裁罗伯特·A·默里（Robert A. Murray）表示，在同一时期，建筑支出在同一时期增长了5％，主要利用了2016年和2017年的建设实力。
默里说：“由健康的经济增长和3月23日综合联邦拨款立法以及最近的州和地方债券措施所带来的更大资金所提供的强烈逆风已经抵消了今年的逆风。”“然而，对于2019年，这种抵消可能不会在相同的程度上存在，因为税收改革对整体经济增长的好处将减少。”
Overall, ENR’s Building Cost Index is expected to rise 3% in 2019, following a 3.2% increase this year. ENR’s Construction Cost Index, which has jumped 2.9% this year, is also predicted to increase 3% in the coming 12 months. Union labor rates make up 81% of the CCI and 66% of the BCI.
The Construction Labor Research Council, which tracks union wage-fringe settlements, reports that through September, wages have increased an average of 3% throughout the U.S. Regionally for all crafts, the Northwest experienced the highest increase at 4.5%, while the Southeast region saw the lowest rise, at 2.1%. Among crafts, insulators have seen the highest wage hike through the first nine months of 2018, at 4.5%
