The construction market currently is healthy and growing, and industry leaders are optimistic that it will continue to grow at least for another year. But while firms remain optimistic about the top line, there are growing concerns about whether the bottom line will continue to keep pace with the expanding market.
在ENR建筑行业信心指数调查的结果中可以看到近期乐观。新利18备用CICI在第三季度保持稳定为70。在191名大型建筑和设计公司对调查做出回应的高管中，大多数人认为，至少直到2019年中，市场增长将持续下去。
但是除此之外，高管们不太乐观。例如，只有15％的人认为市场将在12到18个月内下降，而33％的市场表示仍处于增长模式。但是在三年内，有31％的人预计会下降，而15％的人认为它仍会增长。
The CICI measures executive sentiment about the current market—where it will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. A rating above 50 shows a growing market.
该指数是基于反应调查或者发送t between Aug. 30 and Sept. 26 to more than 6,000 U.S. firms on ENR’s candidate lists of leading general contractors, subcontractors and design firms.
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CFMA：首席财务官很乐观
While most industry executives realize that the current bull market won’t last, most believe that the market will remain strong for another year or more. Many believe the current domestic economy will continue to generate opportunities in construction for the immediate future, despite rising materials costs and staff shortages.
The soon-to-be-released results of the latest Confindex survey from the Construction Financial Management Association, Princeton, N.J., show that CFOs are more worried about the business of construction than the market.
每个季度，CFMA将对一般和民事承包商以及潜艇的200 CFO进行调查。CFMA ConfIndex基于四个独立的财务和市场组成部分，每个财务组成部分的评分为1到200。100的评级表示稳定的市场；较高的评级显示市场增长将会增长。CFMA首席执行官斯图尔特·宾斯托克（Stuart Binstock）说：“整体Confindex从上一季度的116升至本季度的119。”
The three major Confindex components measuring the near-term market rose this quarter. The “general business conditions” component was up one point, to 125; the “current conditions” component rose six points, to 130; and the “financial conditions” component was up four points, to 120. Only the “year-ahead outlook” fell, to 113 from 114, Binstock says.
There is a seasonal pattern to Confindex responses over the past few years, says Anirban Basu, CEO of economic consultant Sage Policy Group, Baltimore, and a CFMA economic adviser. He says CFMA members generally begin the year optimistic, but Confindex numbers fall when the market doesn’t meet their expectations. But this year, the current market has exceeded their early expectations, causing the Confindex numbers to continue to rise.
Rising Costs a Concern
Binstock cautions that the “year-ahead outlook” number indicates that CFOs are worried not so much about the market sagging as they are about stresses on companies’ bottom lines. Materials prices have been rising, and staff shortages are beginning to result in pressures on wages. In the survey, 85% said they were concerned about workforce shortages, up from 83% in the last quarter, says Binstock.
ENR’s CICI survey bears out the worries about materials price increases. A record 87.2% of survey respondents said that they are seeing pressure on materials and equipment costs. Steel was cited most often, by far, as a material whose prices are rising, followed by aluminum, timber and wood products, and concrete. Many survey respondents said prices are up sharply for anything covered by the recent tariffs.
The CICI survey also asked about changes in profit margins since last year. While 34.8% said their firms’ margins were higher, 13.9% said margins had fallen in the past year.
CICI调查还询问了客户获得融资的信息。多数人为62.1％，表示客户获得资本的机会没有变化，而23.2％的人表示，获得项目融资的资本渠道变得更加容易，而14.7％的人表示信贷市场正在收紧。巴苏说资本的可用性不是问题。他说：“借贷的成本可能会损害市场和行业。”
On Sept. 26, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee increased the federal funds rate to 2.25%, the highest it has been since April 2008, from 2%. This puts the prime interest rate at 5.25%, an increase of 1% since last summer. The Fed also hinted that further increases are in store.
巴苏说：“这打击了与高级利率有关的承包商。”但这也给借贷的客户施加了压力，以资助项目。新利18备用网址
Seeing the increasing costs of borrowing, clients may try to force industry firms to cut costs just at the time when they are facing pressure from materials and labor costs. “This is one of the reasons why the Confindex’s year-ahead outlook component dropped this quarter. CFOs see margins under siege in 2019,” Basu says.
