This year marks the eighth year of a recovery from the deep industry recession that was sparked by the financial collapse of September 2008, the third-longest industry recovery on record. And there is still gas in the tank, according to industry executives. But these same execs are hedging their bets beyond 2018.
The near-term optimism, blunted by a longer-term market concern, can be seen in the results of the ENR Construction Industry Confidence Index survey. The CICI fell six points, to 66, in the third quarter. However, of the 257 executives of large construction and design firms responding to the survey, most believe market growth will continue at least through the end of 2018.
But beyond that, the execs are less optimistic. The decline in the CICI rating is a reflection of long-term market concerns. For example, only 15% think it will be in decline in 12 to 18 months, compared to 37% who say it still will be in growth mode. But, in three years, 31% expect a market decline, compared to 24% who believe it still will be growing.
CICI衡量了对当前市场以及未来三到六个月以及12到18个月以上的行政情绪。50以上的阅读表明市场不断增长。
该指数基于对8月24日至9月26日在ENR领先的总承包商，分包商和设计公司清单的6,000多家公司之间发出的调查的回应。新利18备用
View the full ENR 2017 3Q Cost Report PDF
CFMA认为短期乐观
The soon-to-be-released results of the latest Confindex survey from the Construction Financial Management Association, Princeton, N.J., similarly shows that execs believe the market and economy will remain strong through the end of 2018.
每个季度,长安福特民意调查200年从将军和首席财务官civil contractors and subs. The CFMA Confindex is based on four separate financial and market components, each rated on a scale of one to 200. A rating of 100 indicates a stable market; higher ratings show market growth is anticipated.
“The overall Confindex rose from 123 in the second quarter to 124 in the current quarter,” says Stuart Binstock, CEO of CFMA. Three of the four components of the Confindex also rose in the third quarter, after falling in the second quarter, he notes.
Binstock说，“一般业务状况”组件上升了4分，达到128，“当前状况”组件上升了2分，达到128，而“年度前景”上升了1分，达到120分。他指出，ConfIndex的“财务状况”组件降到了2分，至121分。
附近的乐观态度的一部分-term market is that lenders continue to be willing to finance projects. In the current quarter, ENR asked whether clients’ access to capital for projects is getting easier or tougher than it was six months ago.
Two-thirds of respondents said lending criteria is unchanged from the beginning of the year, but 19.4% said access to project financing was actually easier now than at the beginning of the year, while only 13.3% said lending was tightening.
巴尔的摩经济顾问Sage Policy Group Inc.首席执行官Anirban Basu说，开发的房地产价值正在迅速上升，导致贷方更愿意向开发商筹集资金。“贷方坐在大量现金上贷款，并且由于资产价值在上升，因此这些贷款的抵押品有更多的价值。”
市场的增长已经开始提高许多公司的底线。Enn 新利18备用CICI调查询问参与者的当前利润率与一年前相比。虽然有49.8％的人表示利润率大致相同，但31.9％的利润自去年以来就上涨了。
However, many firms also said that competition also is rising. In the CICI survey, 28.0% of the respondents said competition was actually increasing, despite the amount of work available. “Many contractors now are more willing to move into new markets or bid on larger projects in a growth market, increasing competition,” Basu says.
Among the market sectors measured by the CICI survey, most were off in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. The big loser was the retail sector. It is down two points to 41, the lowest-rated sector in the survey. The decline is spurred by increasing store closures among major retail chains as customers continue to move to online shopping.
另一方面，分销和仓库行业提高了5分，达到74分，这是调查中收视率最高的，部分原因是互联网商人争先恐后地建立履行中心为其客户提供服务。
Another sector that saw a major hit in this quarter was transportation. The sector dropped nine points to a 69 rating as many industry execs are becoming more wary of the administration’s infrastructure spending plans. Further, the survey closed before Sept. 28, when President Trump appeared to pull back his support of private financing of infrastructure funding.
While the current market is doing well, many execs expressed a growing sense of unease about the political gridlock in Washington. This frustration was summed up by the president of one mid-sized contractor: “All the talk about infrastructure does nothing for the business. We need some comprehensive action.”
