The construction market remains strong, but construction firms that were excited about the pro-business agenda of President Trump immediately after his election in November are now moderating their long-term outlook.
Most executives believe the market will continue to grow for another year, but many believe the boom will begin to level off in 2019 unless the Trump administration shows more progress on its pro-growth initiatives.
在ENR建筑行业信心指数调查的结果中可以看到新的谨慎。新利18备用CICI在连续两个季度急剧上升后，第二节倒下。在232名大型建筑和设计公司对调查做出回应的高管中，大多数人认为，至少在2018年中期，市场的增长将持续下去。但是，除此之外，高管人员不太乐观。从2017年第一季度起，CICI指数在100范围内下降了4分，至72分。
The CICI measures executive sentiment about the current market and reflects the respondents’ views on where it will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. The index is based on responses to surveys sent out from May 26 through June 26 to more than 6,000 U.S. firms on ENR’s lists of leading general contractors, subcontractors and design firms.
CFMA调查发现原因
The soon-to-be-released results of the latest Confindex survey from the Construction Financial Management Association, Princeton, N.J., similarly show that executives are growing more wary of what 2018 and beyond will bring to the construction market.
CFMA each quarter polls 200 CFOs from general and civil contractors and subs. The CFMA Confindex is based on four separate financial and market components, each rated on a scale of one to 200. A rating of 100 indicates a stable market; higher ratings show market growth or conditions that should foster growth.
“The overall Confindex fell from 130 in the first quarter to 123 in the current quarter,” says Stuart Binstock, CEO of CFMA. Two of the four components of the Confindex also fell dramatically in the first quarter, he notes.
Binstock说，“一般业务状况”的组成部分跌至124点，而“年度前景”也下降了12分，至119分。Binstock指出，ConfIndex的“财务状况”组成部分降至123点，而“当前的市场状况”组成部分下降了3分，达到126。
Much of this decline in confidence comes from the growing realization that much of the Trump agenda is at risk from Congress. “Much of the bounce in the Confindex was from the industry’s reaction to November’s election: that Trump’s agenda could help the industry,” says Anirban Basu, CEO of economic consultant Sage Policy Group Inc., Baltimore.
“The real star of the agenda was the $1-trillion infrastructure stimulus proposal,” Basu says. But after five months in office, Trump is no closer to fulfilling his promises on infrastructure than he was in January. “Many in the industry believe there won’t be an infrastructure package until 2018, if at all,” he adds.
Another concern among the CFOs answering the CFMA survey is what financial conditions will be like in 2018. “In our fourth quarter survey, 46% of CFOs believed profits would rise next year,” says Binstock.
He further notes that in the first quarter, 40% believed profits would be up in the year ahead, but in the current quarter, only 30% believe profits will be up next year.
“主要问题之一是员工短缺是在施加压力。宾斯托克说：“工资提高直接达到底线。新利18备用官网登录“现在，我们的成员不太确定。”
进行企业销售
When applying the CICI formula to individual market sectors, confidence in ten of the 15 markets measured by the survey actually rose in the second quarter, compared to last quarter’s ratings.
但是，高管预计，与当前市场相比，ENR衡量的所有九个通用建筑领域的增长率将在未来18个月内放缓。新利18备用另一方面，高管们认为，在接下来的18个月中，六个非建设部门中有五个将更快地增长。只有危险废物下垂。
One major economic trend is having an impact on the ENR CICI survey. The growing trend among the public favoring online buying is having a severe impact on the retail market. The retail sector is now the lowest rated of all 15 sectors measured by the survey, with a CICI rating of 43. This rating is down 13 points in just the past six months.
在线购买的趋势导致对新商店或翻新商店的需求不足。巴苏说：“有一些研究估计今年将有多达8,600家商店关闭。这比2008年的财务崩溃还多。”
Overall, construction executives believe that the market will continue to grow through the end of 2018, but wonder whether the market’s day of reckoning will come in 2019. “Six months ago,
人们并不担心未来。现在是。”巴苏说。
