加拿大的建筑参与者和行业投资者向新的自由党政府的数十亿美元基础设施支出计划打招呼,背部轻拍而不是疯狂的欢呼。

一位分析师称,备受期待的第一款预算于3月22日发布,在某些基础设施部门的支出中,比以前的保守党政府总数高达30%的预算。但其他行业参与者和观察家说,这比2015年总理贾斯汀·特鲁多(Justin Trudeau)竞选期间的自由主义者所承诺的要少,并忽略了一些希望的规定。

The Liberals were elected last fall on a platform that included, in the next decade, a significant infrastructure investment boost of up to $95 billion beyond previous levels to balance the country's struggling resource-based economy.

预算有什么?

The plan envisions an $8.6-billion burst of spending in the next five years,with rail and transit projects, particularly in Canada's largest cities, emerging as the biggest winners.

"Based on our calculations relative to last year’s commitments, there is an incremental $1.2 billion to $1.29 billion that will be added to [infrastructure] spending over the coming five years, implying a 20% to 30% increase," says Maxim Sytchev, managing director and head of research at Toronto investment firm Dundee Capital Markets.

但是在一份在线报告中,多伦多律师事务所布雷克(Blake),卡塞尔斯(Cassels)和格雷登(Graydon)的律师詹妮弗·陈(Jennifer Chan)和凯瑟琳·道尔(Catherine Doyle)表示,第一阶段的总数少于自由竞选平台中四年来估计提议的128亿美元。

律师说,与平台不同,“ 2016年预算并未在公共交通基础设施,社会基础设施和绿色基础设施之间平均分配新的基础设施资金。”第一阶段的支出“相反,专门针对公共交通,水和废水系统的现代化和修复,提供负担​​得起的住房并保护现有基础设施免受气候变化的影响。”

基础设施的资金还包括大约67亿美元的现有“建筑加拿大”资金,由以前的保守党政府分配但不花费。

In terms of policy and other changes, up to 50% of eligible project costs now can be federally funded, which is in contrast to prior formulas that required an equal share of provincial and municipal monies to support funds committed at the federal level, the attorneys explain.

Further, P3 Canada, the federal public-private-partnership agency managed by the Finance Ministry under the prior government, now will be under Infrastructure Canada jurisdiction, according to the budget, but the government will no longer mandate project screening for P3 project.

行业团体还指出,预算没有提及建立基础设施银行的计划。

政府forecasters said the new investments, combined with other spending, will boost Canada's GDP by up to 1% in the next two fiscal years.

总体而言,过境项目将在未来三年内获新利18备用网址得25亿美元,而10亿美元用于公共住房和15亿美元用于废水处理和其他相关项目。

According to Chan and Doyle, transit funding will flow to provinces based on public-transit ridership levels, with Ontario set to gain $1.1 billion, Quebec to receive $696 million, and British Columbia to get $347 million. But, according to a Bloomberg Canada report, smaller cities such as Winnipeg or Halifax will receive "barely anything" in transit funding.

据彭博社称,在未来四年中,另外还有9.8亿美元将用于加拿大土著人口的项目新利18备用网址,清洁技术的7.7亿美元。

加拿大建筑协会主席迈克尔·阿特金森(Michael Atkinson)表示,将大约15亿美元用于新建筑和升级到该国的专上教育机构。阿特金森说:“这是我们非常非常受欢迎的。”“社区大学提供我们需要的学徒培训的能力存在问题。您会看到很多钱进入实体,这显然对我们的行业有利。”

但是,更多的大规模支出和项目的细节,等待预算的第二阶段,即2新利18备用网址019年下次联邦大选之后。

低悬垂的水果?

Sytchev说,桥梁,港口基础设施和其他大型物品必须等待,主要项目的工作不太可能直到2017年最早开始。新利18备用网址

Blake,Cassels和Graydon的报告说,直到2017年的资金细节才能发布,项目优先级取决于“当前自由政府授权的扩展”。

Sytchev说:“我们还要花一些时间才能看到新闻流与支出有关的新闻流程,因为周围没有铲子就绪的十亿美元项目。”新利18备用网址但是他补充说:“财政刺激无法在更美好的时期到达。”

预算公告后,基础设施部长Amarjeet Sohi告诉加拿大媒体,两阶段的方法将使国民政府和市政当局更有时间同意获得资助的项目,而不是强迫地方政府接受联邦授权。新利18备用网址

But Canadian unions took issue with the new privatization approach. "The Liberal government isn't forcing municipal governments into privatizing, like the Conservatives did, but they are still stacking the deck in favor of P3s," said Charles Fleury, national secretary-treasurer of the Canadian Union of Public Employees. "There are no assurances in this budget that the billions [of dollars] in funding promised will go into truly public infrastructure and services and not into P3 profits."

Share prices at Canadian engineering and construction giants such as SNC-Lavalin and Aecon Group posted a short-lived rise on March 22,before heading back down by the end of the week.

Canaccord Genuity指出,投资公司,last fall, when investors posted their stock price projections, they likely took into account the extra government spending on infrastructure.

但是,基础设施支出不是银弹。分析师Sytchev表示,建筑业的公开交易公司的基础设施工作持续下降10%至40%,并且面临高利润的石油和商品行业项目的下降。新利18备用网址

“They are not only doing infrastructure. They are also doing commodity-related work,” Sytchev said. “Those markets are still very challenging. They are replacing high-margin work with bigger, lumpy projects with lower [net profit] margins.”

令人烦恼的延误

行业参与者和观察家指出,预算几乎没有激励陷入困境的资源领域,除了两年内为15亿美元(从2017年开始),新的低碳经济基金以帮助省份和领土减少温室气体的排放。

John Gamble, CEO of Canada's Association of Consulting Engineering Companies, says the budget is "positive for most of the consulting-engineering sector," but he is "disappointed that there was minimal assistance to the resource sector, which has carried Canada’s economy over many decades."

Gamble还担心新的“严格”项目环境规则”是否会有效,不会鼓励对对经济重要的基础设施和资源项目的轻浮或烦人的延误。”新利18备用网址

他还被称为“不幸”的自由主义者对小型企业的税收减免。尚未制定小商业税率的降低,降至2019年底的9.5%从去年的11%降至9.5%。现在,在一月份的少量削减后,该费率将在可预见的未来保持不变。

However, according to Canada's Globe & Mail newspaper, the government did agree to abandon an election pledge to tax stock options at a higher rate, a budget move that would have undermined the government's focus on innovation, critics said.

Canadian start-ups had argued that options are a key incentive used to attract employees, who accept lower salaries in exchange for shares that, hopefully, escalate in value once the business succeeds. With more heavily taxed option gains, new ventures warned they would struggle to recruit and keep staff innovators.

财政部长比尔·莫诺(Bill Morneau)告诉媒体:“我从许多小公司和创新者那里听到他们使用股票期权作为合法的薪酬形式,因此我们决定不将其投入预算中。”

该故事已更新,以反映对所引用的美元数字的更正。