The construction market continues to grow, but so do the uncertainties about the future. Since the financial meltdown of 2008, when the economy plunged and took construction with it, construction firms have witnessed a slow but steady recovery. However, industry executives are seeing signs of slowing growth.
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ENR建新利18备用筑行业第一季度的信心指数表明，在对调查做出回应的大型建筑和设计公司的239名高管中，大多数人认为，市场增长将在今年年底之前开始升级，并在2017年持平。在第一季度调查中，CICI指数的比例为100，比第四季度下降7分。
CICI衡量了有关当前市场的行政情绪，并反映了受访者对未来三到六个月以及12到18个月以上的情况的看法。该指数基于对ENR领先的总承包商，分包商和设计公司的ENR清单中向6000多家美国公司发送的调查的回应。新利18备用最新结果来自2月24日至3月16日进行的一项调查。
While only a majority of petroleum executives think their sector currently is declining, respondents from every other sector believe their market is in a growth mode. But when asked about prospects through mid-2017, executives said five of the 15 surveyed markets will be in decline and several others will be essentially flat.
For example, 40% of those surveyed believe the overall market currently is growing, and only 15% believe it is declining. However, only 31% of respondents think the market will still be growing in mid-2017, while 23% predict it will be declining at that point.
The soon-to-be-released results of the latest Confindex survey from Construction Financial Management Association, Princeton, N.J., also is showing an increased sense of caution. CFMA polls 200 CFOs each quarter from general and civil contractors and subcontractors.
CFMA Sees Uncertainty Ahead
While a Confindex rating of 100 indicates a stable market, higher ratings show growth is expected. “Our Confindex fell from 128 in the fourth quarter, down to 123 [on a scale of 200] in this quarter,” says Stuart Binstock, CEO of CFMA. “All four components of the Confindex declined.”
Binstock继续指出，ConfIndex的“当前业务状况”部分下降了10分，至126，而本季度的前景成分从122中降至117。“现在的经济状况非常好。但是，由于围绕全球经济，股票市场和即将举行的总统大选的所有不确定性，我们的成员正在等待锤子放弃。”他说。
经济顾问Sage Policy Group Inc.，Baltimore和CFMA经济顾问Anirban Basu说，首席财务官中有真正的担忧，即2017年会看到市场变得平淡无奇。他指出，建筑周期有三个阶段：低迷，当时公司被迫依靠积压和争夺利润的努力；恢复，当市场和利润率开始上升并企业建立积压时；和稳定性，当它开始变得越来越难以维持积压和边缘减弱。
“积压的增长不如过去几年的快速增长，这让我们有一些成员。我们可能正在接近恢复和稳定之间的拐点。”巴苏说。
CFMA members are not seeing a tightening of credit, nor do they foresee pressure on margins. Binstock notes that the “financial conditions” component dropped only one point this quarter, indicating money is available, despite the recent increase in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank and global financial uncertainties.
CICI survey respondents also failed to note any tightening of credit for project financing. When asked if clients’ access to capital has changed over the past six months, 60.6% said there had been no change. Further, 22.0% said client access to capital had gotten easier, while only 17.3% said there had been a tightening of credit.
市场部门软化
In the CICI survey, execs also were asked to assess current and future market prospects in any of the 15 survey market sectors in which they now work. Respondents reported an across-the-board softening in market growth. Indeed, the CICI ratings fell in 13 of the 15 markets surveyed.
The biggest decline was in the petroleum sector, where weak oil prices have begun to take their toll. Petroleum came in at a 28 CICI rating, down 17 points from the fourth quarter. Also down sharply was the commercial building sector, which dropped to a 54 CICI rating in the first quarter from a fourth-quarter 62 rating. The industrial-and-manufacturing and power sectors were both off by six points, as was the distribution-and-warehouse sector.
运输and K-12 education were the two market sectors that gained. The surge in the transportation CICI rating—to 68 points from 62—was expected. The previous CICI survey closed before the passage of the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act, which will provide long-term funding certainty for surface transportation, say transportation firms.
Although firms are worried about the future of the construction market and the overall economy, many remain confident in their own firm’s abilities to carry on. “In the Confindex survey, despite all the uncertainty, 41% believed that their profits would be up next year,” says Binstock.
