HIstory Buffs审查了今年2006年的一批行业预测，可能会经历Yogi Berra对“再次deja vu”的感觉。强大而稳定的公共工程和反弹非住宅建筑市场的情况抵消了创纪录的房屋建筑市场中经济低迷的情况，与去年的预测非常相似。尽管去年对公共工程和非住宅建筑的预测几乎是真实的，但房屋市场再次违反了对其灭亡的预测。

根据美国商务部的估计，今年新的住宅建设的价值并没有放缓，而是今年的新住宅建筑价值增长了14％。根据商业数据，新住房将占今年113.6万亿新元的建筑市场的57％。麦格劳 - 希尔建筑（MHC）（MHC）是ENR的一部分，估计新单户住房开始的价值新利18备用今年将增加8％，因为在过去三年中累计增长45％。

相关链接：
  • 商业预测住房将保持
  • FMI的预测领导公牛
  • NAHB预测，较高的利率将冷却住房
  • PCA Says Inflation Will Be a Problem
  • Markets Will Retrench in 2006
  • Shortage of Big Machinery Continues Amid Explosive Buying Spree
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    Forecast 2006
  • The complete Forecast 2006 cover story with all data and analysis is free to ENR subscribers but can also be purchased for only $17.95. click here for more information.
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    The consensus among economists is that the residential building market is very near its peak and that the Federal Reserve Board’s constant ratcheting up of interest rates eventually will impact housing. The dividing line between most forecasts is the timing of the downturn in housing starts, with some looking for it to happen as early as the first quarter of next year. Others expect the market’s momentum to carry housing deep into the 2006 building season.

    MHC的预测是因为建筑的总价值开始将明年再增加3％至6540亿美元。MHC的首席经济学家罗伯特·默里（Robert Murray）说，这将在2005年的年度增长8％，在2004年为11％。“这是2006年的正面情况，尽管我对2007年有些担忧。”“事实证明，建筑非常稳定且有弹性。”

    Shifting Drivers

    But, this stability is masking some fundamental shifts in what will be driving construction growth in 2006. Single family housing will retreat from its record 2005 amount due to moderately higher mortgage rates and reduced demand from first-time homebuyers in some overpriced markets, says Murray. He forecasts the dollar volume to be down 1%, corresponding to a 5% drop in the number of new units to 1.525 million. The modest decline still leaves the 2006 housing market as the second-largest on record.

    While the volume of the single-family housing market will remain historically high, industry growth will be shifting to other markets that will continue to build on this year’s strength. The fastest growing market tracked by MHC this year was multifamily housing, which jumped 24% above 2004’s level to $64 billion. "It’s condo-mania out there," says Murray. He predicts that the market will top this year’s performance by another 4% in 2006. On a physical level, multifamily housing plateaued at around 400,000 units in 1998, but the market is being driven by the proliferation of high-end condos, Murray adds.

    MHC还呼吁2006年其他几个非住宅建筑市场的显着增长。总体而言，预计新的非住宅建筑开始的价值将在2006年增长8％，约为今年S增长率的两倍。

    预计酒店和汽车旅馆市场将超过今年的17％增长，在2006年的新开始时又有18％。新利18备用网址穆雷说：“房间和另一个在拉斯维加斯的1000间客房项目以及巴尔的摩，凤凰城，纽约和洛杉矶的会议中心酒店。”

    MHC预测的最大市场周转是办公楼，这是2005年令人失望的，新开始的价值从2004年代的水平下降了近10％。该市场预计将反弹12％至220亿美元。

    穆雷说，办公楼的基本面比今年的下降表明要强大。CB理查德·埃利斯（Richard Ellis）追踪的市区办公室空缺率在2005年不断下降，到今年第二季度达到13.4％，而2004年第一季度的最新峰值为14.7％。在2003年第三季度的峰值18.2％的峰值％。

    "With the gains in office building employment holding at historically healthy levels, corporations will find that they must expand their office space to make room for growing ranks," says Murray. Still, the recovery will be more modest than in prior years and office construction starts in 2006 of 167 million sq ft will fall far short of the last pinnacle of 300 million sq ft set in 2000, he adds.

    Indeed, many nonresidential building markets appear to have substantial room for more growth with square footage totals well below peaks set between 1998 and 2001

    "Private nonresidential work is nicely poised for for a long upswing," says Patrick MacAuley, a construction economist who puts together the U.S. Dept. of Commerce forecast. MacAuley does not see double-digit growth for construction put-in-place for most nonresidential building market because of the lag between put-in-place and start data. On average, Commerce sees growth rates between 2 and 8% for most nonresidential markets.

    商业预测更像是持有住宅建设的一年。Macauley说：“我假设房屋市场的高峰将在建设季节晚些时候，使住房投资能力在2006年又增加了6.1％。”他还预测，在今年增长10％之后，他的房屋装修量增加了5％。

    "One of the biggest turnarounds in our forecast is for the conservation market, which is primarily flood control," says MacAuley. Before the hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast this year, Commerce had been anticipating a 10% decline in this market. Now it is forecasting a 15% increase to $6 billion and that "is entirely due to the rebuilding effort," he adds.

    MHC also thinks the rebuilding effort along the Gulf Coast will be a boost to construction in the area. While it forecasts starts to increase between 1 and 3% in most regions, it is projecting a 9% increase for the South Central region, which stretches from Texas to Alabama.

    Commerce also sees strong growth in the industrial and highway markets next year. After years of depressed levels, the manufacturing market has finally bottomed out, says MacAuley. "It’s not so much a boom as much as reaching the point where industry has to invest the minimum amount to maintain its base." He predicts the value of construction put-in-place for manufacturing work will increase 10% next year after climbing 20% during 2005.

    Highway construction also will be a big winner in 2006, with Commerce forecasting a 12% increase on top of this year’s 11% gain. MHC is forecasting highway starts to increase 12% in 2006 after finishing this year with an 8% gain.

    Improved state and local government finances are giving the biggest boost to highway construction, with the new federal financing bill coming too late in the year to have much of an impact, says William Buechner, vice president of economics and research for the American Road & Transportation Builders Association, Washington, D.C.

    Higher Inflation

    通货膨胀也使高速公路市场更高。Buechner说：新利18备用官网登录“在2004年增长9％之后，与高速公路工作有关的材料成本有望增长13％。”“材料约占[典型]项目成本的一半，因此从今年的三分之一到一半的材料可能只是更高的成本。”新利18备用官网登录

    The forecast by the Portland Cement Association, Skokie, Ill., also suggests that inflation is sapping real industry growth. PCA’s forecast of construction put-in-place adjusted for inflation is for total construction to increase 3.9% this year and 1.8% in 2006.

    PCA的首席经济学家埃德·沙利文（Ed Sullivan）说：“我们的石油价格方案更高，材料的短缺，人工成本开始收紧。”新利18备用官网登录他说，最终将在长期利率中重新降低通货膨胀率，这可能会转化为2007年及以后的经济增长较慢。PCA预测，到2009年，施工的年增长率将减缓到仅0.9％。

    The impact of higher material prices will lead to some deferrals in projects but not to any derailment, says Murray. "Projects will eventually go forward."

    尽管10月1日标志着2006年联邦财政年度的开始，但设计和承包商仍在11月中旬等待，国会为许多关键建筑计划的最终支出数量解决。

    除了在2006年常规拨款法案中资助的工作外，联邦资金的另外还可能会前往遭受飓风袭击的墨西哥湾沿岸国家。布什总统于10月28日要求国会批准已批准已批准的171亿美元的资金转让，但尚未花费，以重建暴风雨损害的基础设施和其他恢复需求。行业官员认为，国会将同意拟议的转变，这将包括至少79亿美元用于高速公路，堤防和其他基础设施。但是截至11月14日，立法者尚未清除重新编程。

    Along with the transfer, Bush proposed rescinding $2.3 billion from programs he deemed "lower priority." Construction officials were particularly concerned that $166 million of those cuts would come from Clean Water State Revolving Funds.

    参议院拨款委员会主席Thad Cochran（R-Miss。）于11月10日告诉ENR，立法者将不得不在白宫转会计划中采取行动。新利18备用他说：“我们的时间没时间了。”他认为，重新编程很可能会附加到剩下的八项2006年支出账单之一。

    A continuing resolution that has kept most federal agencies operating since Oct. 1 was set to expire on Nov. 18. Another stopgap was expected by then.

    升起

    Although regular 2006 appropriations for many construction programs were not yet final, some of the figures are becoming clearer as the Thanksgiving break draws near. For example, the bill covering energy and water programs, including the Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation and the Dept. Of Energy’s defense environmental cleanup effort, was on the verge of final congressional approval.

    That measure would provide $5.4 billion for the Corps civil works budget, up $6 million from 2005. The increase is more noteworthy because 2005’s total includes $709 million in emergency funding, much of it for work related to Hurricane Katrina. Within the 2006 civil works total, the Corps construction account would rise 6%, to $2.4 billion.

    AGC环境，联邦市场和采购总监Karen Bachman说，相关的总承包商“绝对对工程师数量的人数感到满意”。她指出，54亿美元的公民工程比布什的要求高10亿美元。巴赫曼说：“这反映了飓风期间确定的需求”，并认识到“军团预算已经变成了多年”。

    “我们很兴奋的是，同盟国认识到有必要解决我们长期以来的基础设施，预算非常接近我们估计的56亿美元的预算，我们估计军团需要开始加入最关键的问题，以解决最关键的问题。”国家水道会议主席Worth Hager。

    The 2006 energy and water measure also allocates $1 billion to the Bureau of Reclamation, up 6% from 2005. But it slices DOE’s defense environmental restoration account by 9%, to $6.2 billion.

    Bachman says AGC also is monitoring what happens to a House proposal to make an across-the-board cut in 2006 domestic discretionary spending. "There’s still some talk of trying to get that in maybe the last appropriations bill" for 2006. If that cut is approved, it would mean a significant reduction in infrastructure programs, she says.