In the latest update of its 2010 construction-markets forecast based on actual construction starts through April, McGraw-Hill Construction still is predicting a 2% annual decline in the dollar value of the non-residential building market this year. “We’ve become a bit more pessimistic on this year’s prospects for the commercial and educational building markets,” says Robert Murray, MHC’s chief economist. He expects to see annual declines this year of 18% for manufacturing buildings, 12% for hotel and motel work, 6% for both office and school buildings and 5% for commercial structures.

“We’re looking for a decent increase, from very low levels, for single-family housing, but the size of that increase has been reduced,” says Murray. “To see a sustained increase in home sales, we need to see an improvement in the employment situation,” he adds. “Right now we are returning to the sense that it is going to be a gradual, hesitant improvement, vulnerable to the occasional weak month.” He adds that the situation for public works is very similar.

“The risk [overall] is greater on the downside but not to the extent that it would turn total construction in 2010 into a decline,” says Murray. “What I am most worried about is state and local finances. If there is anyplace for [a second wave of] stimulus spending, it would be to shore up state and local finances.” But in the end, Murray expects a 26% increase in residential buildings and a 14% increase in public works to save the day, resulting in a 10% increase in the dollar value of overall construction in 2010.

在本季度的指数中很明显，非住宅建筑市场对建筑成本的影响很明显。新利18备用官网登录售价指数反映出由于激烈的竞争而导致分包商的利润率下降，比去年同期下降了2％至8％。一般建筑成本指数衡量商品价格和劳动工资和解，平均年增加不到2％。美国商务部汇编的特殊用途成本指数显示，仓库的年度下降为4.6％，办公楼为4.3％，学校为1.5％。

“建筑成本在较低的水平下稳定新利18备用官网登录。”卡尔·施利夫（Karl Almsteadthe first quarter of this year, but competition is still pushing contractor’s selling prices down, although they are not falling as fast as they were a few quarters ago.”

木材价格回应了住房反弹的第一个迹象，这是从沮丧的水平迅速上升的。但是，市场无法维持这些更高的价格。自去年4月底以来，构架木材的铣削价格已经下降了每千英尺一百多美元。“价格在4月30日达到367美元的峰值，”基于俄勒冈州欧文（Eugene）的随机长度的编辑肖恩·教堂（Sean Church）说，这是一本发行市场价格的木材行业贸易杂志。“ 6月18日的价格为257美元，高于一年前的213美元。”

教会将升级和随后的迅速下降归因于多种因素。“生产商在2009年底将产量削减到历史较低的水平。零售场和分销商在2010年初的库存较低而开始补货，因为住房税收抵免增加了需求。低供应和需求增加引起了4月30日达到顶峰的价格。到期的税收抵免和木材码的订单减少，并随着新库存的加在一起，以停止增加。”

对于结构钢和增强型电池价格，类似的情况也正在发展，在第一季度首次增长后，它们开始倒退。6月15日，麦格劳 - 希尔（McGraw-Hill）的普拉茨（Platts）钢铁市场每日追踪的钢筋价格下跌25至585美元，以东南的基准价格下跌。