The best word to describe the mood at the National Association of Home Builders’ International Builders Show and the current homebuilding market is “grim.” About 60,000 people attended the show in Las Vegas on Jan. 20-23, 40% fewer than attended the show last year. Exhibitors said they were not surprised at the attendance, given the state of the economy and market. Kohler, the plumbing and fixture giant, said foot traffic was off by at least 20%. “There have been more questions about how we are doing as a company than questions about our new products,” said one Kohler rep.
显示屏上存在明显的空白，许多大型工具制造商没有传统的大型摊位，选择与Lowes和Home Depot一起进行合作安排。Lowes代表说：“这是他们以前唯一出售工具的地方。”
市场上有两个亮点是，未来的人口统计信息非常适合新的家庭建设，抵押贷款利率对于有欠款，良好的信用记录，完整文件和符合贷款余额的购买者来说是50年来最低的。
Borrowers need all four, otherwise the interest rates will be “much, much more,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, Washington, D.C. He said lenders “are tightening the loan box” for single-family homes, multi-unit residential properties and construction loans as foreclosures and defaults mount and house and apartment prices decline.
There currently is an imbalance of supply and demand, with more than 1.5 million houses for rent or sale standing empty, said NAHB’s new chief economist, David Crowe. He noted that less than one-third are new, but he pointed out that there is “a constant supply of homes in foreclosure” coming into the market, “in excess of 2 million per year,” and “builders are not building anything.” Crowe said the 400,000 vacant new units ordinarily would not be considered a glut, but “no one is buying.”
抵押保险公司PMI Group Inc.的首席经济学家David Berson，加利福尼亚州核桃溪（Walnut Creek）预计，住房市场稳定距离将是两三年。他预测，单户住宅的起点将在今年总计620,000个单位和280,000个单位的多单元住房，总计925,000个单位，包括制造房屋。他预计市场稳定后有150万至190万次开始，这主要是由于家庭成立率很高，今年总共将有140万。他说：“最终，我们将度过这一时期。”
“We are losing members,” noted NAHB’s Crowe. “We probably have lost 15% to 20% over the past year, [and] we will lose more....Some will do something else, combine with competitors or just disappear.” Crowe said NAHB estimates it has lost 3 million jobs in residential construction.
David Ledford, an NAHB senior staff vice president, said builders whose financial institutions have been taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are having their projects put into receivership even if they are viable projects. FDIC does not want to be in the lending business, he said.
房屋建筑商报告说，越来越多的“逐步评估”的频率，并且最近的关闭未被金融机构接受。NAHB 50多个住房委员会的一些建筑商表示，银行不接受两个月大的新鲜价格，并且正在使用止赎，卖空和折扣价。“这是自喂的，”乔治亚州粉末泉市Fortenberry Construction首席执行官Christine Fortenberry补充说。
“We continue to advocate for an economic-stimulus package that recognizes how important the homebuilding industry is to helping the nation get back on track, and when it does, we will be ready,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a Tulsa homebuilder. “We’re in the midst of an industry crisis.” NAHB is supporting Fix Housing First legislation.
